Australia is poised to take advantage of strong fundamentals in the global grains sector according to Lachstock Consulting’s chief executive officer Nick Carracher.

Speaking prior to the Australian Grains Industry Conference this week Mr Carracher said domestic and international factors were falling into line for a positive season.”It’s going to be a big year for the new crop,” Mr Carracher said. Speaking before weekend rain, Mr Carracher said the Mallee needed a drink, but other areas looked good and with the Mallee receiving good falls over the weekend most areas are now in at least reasonable condition.

On the export side, Mr Carracher said old crop continued to move out the door as quickly as it could be moved and added there was likely to be very strong demand for new crop. “Crop production issues in places like Russia have worked in our favour,” he said. Mr Carracher said last year’s good season and solid availability of grain also meant customers had reacquainted themselves with Australian grain after buying elsewhere during the drought. “Indonesia has really snapped back in terms of its purchasing patterns it is definitely the big one.” He said the hype around the oilseed complex was justified. “The Canadian situation regarding their crop is really interesting, the poorer results expected there could have an impact on absolute demand.” He said Australian growers would have strong competition for their product from the export market and domestic crushers, buoyed by very strong local margins.

Mr Carracher said the broader oilseeds complex had more news that could be possibly positive for canola values that have gone largely unreported here. “The major palm oil producing nations like Indonesia and Malaysia are unfortunately in the grips of massive outbreaks of the Delta strain of COVID-19, which means there are issues with harvesting the palms due to a lack of workers.” Even barley, which has been forgotten in the hype around canola and wheat, also has a good outlook. “Barley seems to have weathered the storm after the China tariffs last year and is positioned well to leverage off a great season. “A lot of barley is planted in the areas that are a little light on for rain, like the Mallee, but you would still expect a substantial crop.” He said Saudi Arabia was providing a solid alternative market for barley in the absence of china. Mr Carracher said changing rules in Saudi’s import program, which is allowing private buyers, would be a change to monitor to see if it impacted demand out of the Middle East.

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